Posted on August 30, 2010 - by Venik

Russians need our support | Susan Richards

Only corruption and force hold Putin’s pyramid of power together. Protests could bring about change

Russia is entering a potentially volatile period. Though Vladimir Putin remains a popular leader – and the economy, thanks to rising oil prices, looks set to grow by an enviable 4% this year – the pressure for political change is building. People’s daily experience is of a yawning gap between their own poverty and the wealth of those with power; of a pyramid of power held together by greed and networks of corruption.

This has been dramatically demonstrated by the inability of officialdom to bring this summer’s forest fires under control. Around 75% of full-time forest rangers’ jobs have gone; and in 2007 responsibility for firefighting was transferred from the state to the local authorities, where corruption is rampant.

Factories are putting their workforces on half time; people have turned again to their allotments to feed the family; and among the elite, it is widely understood that the present political model has no future. There is a lot of talk about building a knowledge economy and Russia’s own silicon valley. But you can’t jump-start technology while ignoring political modernisation, as the Soviet experience demonstrated, and Russia’s economy remains tied to raw materials.

The regime has started signalling that it is not insensitive to the public mood. Earlier this month controversial plans to bulldoze a forest outside Moscow to allow construction of a new motorway to St Petersburg were shelved. And the Kremlin has just replaced the governor of the province of Kaliningrad, a Putin crony, after massive demonstrations.

When Putin came to power the economy was growing so fast that it lifted everyone’s standard of living. With the memory of the chaotic 90s fresh in people’s minds, it was easy to muzzle the press, castrate the opposition and bring regional power under direct control. But growth no longer trickles down to ordinary people. And without the structural supports Putin removed, the pyramid of power lacks stability. What holds it together are force and corrupt networks.

In Soviet times overseas support for “dissidents” acted as a significant restraint on the authorities. But today, western governments offer no support to opposition figures: they have agreed a Faustian pact with Putin, over energy (in Europe) and the “war against terror” (in the US).

In this context Strategy 31 – a civic movement bringing together old-style dissidents, intellectuals and young people fresh to politics – has emerged to defend article 31 of Russia’s constitution on the right to free assembly. Supporters convene at 6pm on the 31st of each month, in a number of Russian cities.

In Moscow, they have been assembling in Triumfalnaya Square, from which they have been repeatedly banned. At the last demonstration, on 31 July, 100 of the 1,000 protesters were detained, many badly beaten. Tomorrow, when thousands of Russians make their stand at home, there will also be demonstrations in London (outside the Russian embassy), New York and other western capitals.

Strategy 31 is not in itself going to precipitate political change in Russia. When liberalisation does come, it will probably be introduced by someone from within the heart of the power elite. That was the story with Khrushchev, and Gorbachev too. But together with popular discontent, these demonstrators will have played their part in triggering that change. Police violence towards them is likely to get worse. They are going to need to be able to rely on public opinion in the west to back them. Are they going to get it?

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