Posted on April 16, 2009 - by Venik

Costly NATO Ambitions

Besieged in his new glass-domed presidential palace in Tbilisi by thousands of protesters demanding his resignation, Mikheil Saakashvili is desperately searching for any opportunity to strengthen his slipping hold on power. The EU, rattled by the brief but eventful 2009 gas war between Russia and Ukraine, is almost just as anxious to help Misha keep his office (and his head) for a while longer, as Brussels needs time to locate and properly groom a suitable replacement.

The EU is still hopeful to finish the jigsaw puzzle of Byzantine energy politics that is the Nabucco pipeline project – the key to Europe’s “independence” from Russian gas. And, of course, Georgia is where Turkmen gas turns left, toward Turkey,  instead of turning right – toward Russia. The Nabucco project may never materialize due to purely economic reasons, but without cooperative leadership in Georgia this project is as good as dead.

Protests in Tbilisi, April 2009

The idea of a joint military exercise between the NATO and Georgia’s glorious army was floated by Brussels just a few days ago. True, there was talk about the possibility of such joint maneuvers for weeks and months, but it was a purely academic discussion and mostly just Saakashvili thinking out loud. What forced the EU’s hand were the massive protests by the opposition supporters in Tbilisi that created a serious possibility of Saakashvili’s early and not entirely voluntary retirement.

Russia’s response to the plans of a NATO military exercise is Georgia was about as hard to predict as the ending of a Bollywood movie. The Kremlin isn’t much on singing and dancing, but it did send more heavy armor to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Probably to show its NATO comrades the proper respect. OSCE observers on the border between Georgia and its former provinces reported significant Russian reinforcements. For its part, the Kremlin is accusing Georgia of quietly building up special forces near the borders.

Saakashvili chewing his tie

This build up of tension along the borders is unlikely to dissipate on its own. It is entirely in the EU’s interests to keep Georgia’s drugged-out president away from any release valves. After all, Russian gas is better than no gas at all. Besides, Georgia has just one more breakaway province left – Ajaria – and the precious Nabucco pipeline runs right through the middle of it. Having Russian tanks there would not be helpful at all.

In his rush to distract public opinion from the country’s sad financial situation and his less-than-successful South Ossetian campaign, Saakashvili should be careful not to miss a possibility that the Kremlin may also welcome a little distraction, as it is about to launch a painful military reform and cut the budget by two trillion rubles. Both Saakashvili and Medvedev may be looking for a little sideshow. And if this is the case, once again Saakashvili will be easy to recognize as the one wearing the clown hat.

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