Posted on January 3, 2009 - by Venik

Gaza Rocketeers

Just as I was starting to get bored, another squabble broke out between Israel and Hamas. Apparently, the mighty Hamas army has been firing rockets in the general direction of Negev wastelands surrounding Gaza, causing alarming damage to local wildlife. Or so Mark Regev, the Israeli government spokesman, tells us. Ms. Amanpour of CNN has been interviewing various Jews for four days straight, probably just to make sure every viewer is well familiar with Tel Aviv’s official point of view on the situation in Gaza. To save you the pain of actually having to listen to Amanpour’s drivel, here’s a brief summary of Israel’s stance on negotiating with the world’s largest concentration camp: “Do you expect me to talk? No, Mr. Bond. I expect you to die!”

So what are these terrifying Hamas rockets that seem to put Israel in so much distress? A quick search through the Jane’s database confirmed my suspicion that Gaza does not have a well-established aerospace industry. Thus, we are either talking about imports or, considering the general shape of a rocket, perhaps a militaristic branch of the local plumbing trade. Israel claims that Hamas launched hundreds of rockets in the past several days. Looking at the map of the area in question, it is difficult to imagine a cross-border unguided rocket trade of such scale, leaving local manufacture the only viable alternative. Something tells me that thin-walled steel pipes and potassium nitrate fertilizer are in high demand in Gaza.

Al-Quds Brigades militants pose with their new Quds 4 Rockets (Palestinian Islamic Jihad), Jane's

The Quassam rockets, as these primitive and unstable weapons are known, are designed primarily to kill their launch crews. With the range of only twelve kilometers, a tiny warhead and no guidance, even a successful launch of a large number of such rockets is a virtual guarantee of no enemy casualties. Here’s what Jane’s has to say about these fearsome weapons:

“The launching process is extremely dangerous for the rocket crews as the skies over the Gaza Strip are constantly patrolled by Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Time is crucial. The rocket teams must set up and fire their projectiles before they are discovered by the Israeli drones and counter-fire is brought against them. A member of an Al-Quds Brigades launch unit tells Jane’s that most of his deceased colleagues were killed by Israeli aircraft as they left the launch site in vehicles, often after becoming stuck in traffic…

Although rocket fire has increased since the Gaza disengagement, is has become less effective. Only two people were killed by rockets in 2006, a kill ratio of one fatality per 430 rockets. Rocket fire has continued to increase in 2007. The Israeli spokesman said that 286 were launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israeli between 15 May and 4 June. Two people have been killed so far in 2007, both of them in May.”

(source: JANE’S TERRORISM & SECURITY MONITOR, JULY 11, 2007 )

The logical question is: if these rockets are so ineffective, why do Hamas militants persist in making and launching them, continuously exposing themselves to far greater risks than those faced by their intended targets? The answer is really very simple. Ever since Israel removed settlements from Gaza Strip and introduced new security measures that made it nearly impossible for Hamas to organize cross-border suicide bombings, Hamas lost the ability to wage effective resistance against Israeli occupation. Lacking ability to engage Israeli targets at a distance, the only option for Hamas was to bring those targets closer.

The solution was to ramp up production of Quassams and hope that eventually Israel gets annoyed enough to send the troops into Gaza. Performance of Quassam rockets is actually not bad for its class. The WWII-era Soviet BM-13 Katyusha rockets had a range of only six kilometers, which was later expanded to ten. The original BM-21 Grad MLRS developed by the Soviets in the 1960s had effective range of just 15 kilometers, while the latest Quassam-4 rocket flew 17 kilometers during testing. One of these long-range Quassam versions exploded in downtown Ashkelon earlier this year without killing or injuring anybody.

Unfortunately for Hamas rocketeers, Gaza is surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. The only town within Quassam‘s reach is Sderot. Since 2001 Hamas launched thousands of rockets at the town, killing thirteen. Israel’s decision to deploy ground forces in Gaza is a gift to Hamas. During the Operation Summer Rains in 2006, Israel undertook brief ground incursions into Gaza Sector from north and south. These ground operations had little military meaning and were intended primarily as a show of resolve and a way of embarrassing Hamas by arresting several high-ranking PNA cabinet members and Hamas ministers.

In 2006 Israel failed to achieve its military objective. Israeli leadership buckled under growing international pressure and ordered the embarrassing unilateral withdrawal, allowing Hamas to claim victory. Of course, the 2006 military action by Israel had nothing to do with Quassam rockets, just as the latest IDF attack against Gaza was not caused by these useless weapons. The reason for the 2006 invasion of Gaza was the surprise victory by Hamas during Palestinian parliamentary elections earlier that year. Israel attempted to undermine popularity of Hamas, but ended up reinforcing it. Current military action by the IDF is designed to take advantage of the last remaining weeks of Bush’s administration. Apparently, Tel Aviv is not at all convinced by Obama’s promise to dance to the tune of Israeli lobbyists in Washington. God forbid, Obama may actually view the Middle Eastern peace process with an emphasis on the “peace” and not on the “process”.

Because time is very limited, the IDF will push fast and far, and try to accmplish as much as it can in the next two weeks of Washington’s guaranteed silent complicity. Ultimately, Tel Aviv will once again yield to political pressure. In the midst of a global economic recession, not even Israel’s closest allies are in the mood for IDF’s shananigans. This is not just bad news for warmakers in Israel, but also for their colleagues in Gaza, who, once again, will fail to draw the IDF into a protracted street-level fighting – the only way for Hamas to inflict any serious casualties upon its enemies. Israel will be in and out and Hamas will be back to launching Quassams in no time.

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