Posted on November 8, 2008 - by Venik

Obama, Biden Complicate Relations with Russia

Paradoxical as this may sound, the victory of pacifist Obama over his saber-rattling Republican opponent makes the Kremlin very concerned. One reason for this is simple: an idiot in the White House was good for Moscow. Russians joke that Dubya was their best president ever. Indeed, Russians have Bush – not Putin – to thank for much of their country’s economic recovery, fueled by high energy prices – a direct result of America’s inept foreign policy. Another reason for Kremlin’s apprehension toward Obama is his VP choice: Joe Biden was one of the architects of the dismemberment of Yugoslavia – a major thorn in Russo-American relations – and a vocal proponent of interventionism.

The day after the election in the US, Medvedev delivered a tough-worded speech focused on the economy and relations with the US. This was a regular address to the nation initially scheduled for October, but the speech was delayed officially due to the economic crisis and, unofficially, to time it to the US presidential election. Russia promised to deploy medium-range ballistic missiles and radar-jamming equipment in Kaliningrad, should the US proceed with the construction of the ABM sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. This is something to be concerned about.

Iskander-M missile launcher

The “Iskander-M” mobile launcher is a Scud on steroids. It is the most advanced ballistic missile system in its class. Technically, “Iskander-M” is not even a ballistic system: the 9М723 missile can operate as a ballistic missile, as a cruise missile, or a combination of two, with full control over its trajectory throughout flight. Current US and NATO missile defense systems are useless against “Iskander-M”. These defenses are designed for intercepting either pure ballistic missiles (constant trajectory, predictable speed) or cruise missiles (flying low and slow).

The 9М723 missile is programmed to execute intensive evasive maneuvers on approach to the target area. The missile makes turns and twists at 20-30g, which means that any interceptor missile has to maneuver at 2-3 times this rate. The 9М723 missile cannot be jammed electronically: it relies on internal inertial guidance and passive optical correction during terminal stage of flight. This allows this aeroballistic, as Russian designers call it, missile to achieve accuracy in the past attainable only by much slower cruise missiles. Another key advantage of the “Iskander-M” system is that the launcher vehicle carries not one but two missiles. The second missile can be launched in less than one minute after the first one. This allows a single launcher to overwhelm even the most capable integrated air defense systems.

During the past five years – ever since the US invaded Iraq – Russia effectively played on the differences between the EU and the US. Likewise, Russia was able to take advantage of the EU’s disunity stemming from largely pro-American position of the UK and the “New Europe” and the counter-American attitudes shared by most other EU members. Obama’s election – depending on his actions in Iraq – will likely reinvigorate relations between the US and the European Union, limiting Russia’s “divide-and-conquer” options. With Joe Biden driving America’s foreign policy, the US is unlikely to willingly give up any ground in places like Georgia and Ukraine.

And so Medvedev in his speech made Obama a simple proposition: the US can back down on its missile shield plans and lay off the democracy export business, and then Obama can concentrate on dealing with the economy and keeping his election promises; or the US can persist on its previous confrontational course and Obama will spend the next four years dealing with Russian ballistic missiles in Europe, Russian warships in Mediterranean and in Indian Ocean, Russian bombers in Latin America, Russian tanks in the Caucasus, and so on. The US and Russia are still on the collision course and Obama said nothing to alleviate any of Moscow’s concerns. He spoke in support for the ABM shield, he criticized Russia’s “aggression” in Georgia, and he actively supported Ukraine’s nationalist president. As far as Biden is concerned, all his trash-talking about Russia can fill volumes. Russians like to remember things like these and so there will be no honeymoon for the new American president as far as relations with Russia are concerned.

P.S. It seems Medvedev got what he wanted – a one-on-one with Obama. AFP quoted Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov as saying that a meeting between Medvedev and Obama may take place in Washington as early as next Friday. I may be wrong, but I think this is may be the first time a Russian leader will be meeting with an American president-elect. Interesting to note that Obama already spoke on the phone with Poland’s Lech Kaczynski, who raised the question of missile defense – apparently seeking assurances from Obama that the project will proceed as planned – but got no specific response from Obama, other than a few words on the importance of America’s relations with Poland. It should be mentioned that initially Polish President claimed that Obama assured him that the ABM shield project will go ahead. Obama’s foreign policy adviser had to correct this statement, saying that Obama “made no commitment” and that “he supports deploying a missile defense system when the technology is proved to be workable”.

Russia’s threat to deploy ballistic missiles in Kalinigrad at this time was a shrewed move. The ABM shield is known to be Bush’s pet project. The system’s effectiveness is being widely questioned by experts. Russia’s opposition to the plan is well known. Come February, the last thing Obama needs is Russia deploying ballistic missiles on the Polish border. There is a possibility that, while Obama will not completely abandon ABM shield plans, he may choose to put the project on hold, provided that Russia will do the same with its missile plans. Russia, on the other hand, has to use this opportunity to the fullest and will probably be looking for a more permanent solution to the ABM shield issue.

Rose Gottemoeller, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, believes that Russia made a mistake by threatening to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad:

“The Russians created a problem for themselves and it’s now up to them to figure out how they get themselves out of this hole. Like a sulky teenager, you don’t want to have to deal with them. For the Obama team, they’re going to say ‘if they don’t want to play, well, fine, we have other things to do right now’.”

(Source: “Obama keeps people guessing on missile shield amid Russian threats“, AFP, Nov. 8, 2008)

It is truly amazing how someone – presumably a Russia expert – is living in Moscow, reading Russian press, watching Russian TV, talking to ordinary Russians as well as to politicians and is still capable of such thorough misinterpretation of Russia’s foreign policy. Russia’s threat to deploy “Iskander” missiles on the Polish border is very real. If Obama “doesn’t want to play”, Russia will place the missiles in Kaliningrad. It’s as simple as that. Russia wants – and will get – one of two things: either Obama agrees to pull the plug on Bush’s ABM shield (even if not permanently), or Russia will deploy the missiles, embarrass Obama, and get back to its divide-and-conquer game with the EU. Either way, this situation will play out to Russia’s immediate advantage.

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