Posted on September 4, 2008 - by Venik
Ukraine’s Political Turmoil
The constitutional crisis in Ukraine is a direct result of the threats made by the US and the EU against Russia’s WTO membership bid. In case Ukraine’s political life is not at the top of your list of interests, here is a very brief summary of events from the past week of Ukraine’s turbulent political life.
Yushchenko – Ukraine’s pro-Western president – accused Julia Timoshenko – Ukraine’s cute, hugely popular pro-Western Prime Minister of treason and launched a formal criminal investigation against his right-hand woman and mother-in-law of Sean Carr of Death Valley Screamers. Yushchenko claims that Timoshenko was in bed with the Kremlin and that Russia was going to support Timoshenko in the upcoming 2010 presidential election. Timoshenko, who is also the leader of the BYT – the second largest faction in the Parliament – sided with the Regions Party (led by the pro-Russian former Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yanukovich) to pass – with overwhelming majority – a legislation stripping the president of some of his most important powers.
Julia Timoshenko
Timoshenko also called Yushchenko’s rule a “dictatorship of stupidity, irresponsibility and chaos”. Yushchenko threatened to dissolve the Parliament and to call for early parliamentary elections, probably hoping that the anti-Russian hysteria raised in the wake of the war in Georgia will allow his nationalist party to get more seats in the parliament at the expense of Yanukovich’s Regions Party. And Timoshenko countered by calling for early presidential elections, which she should have no problem winning due to Yushchenko’s extremely low approval ratings. Timoshenko is one of the most ruthless and opportunistic politicians in the history of politics. Yushchenko learned the hard way not to put anything in his Prime Minister’s pretty little mouth.
All this Brownian motion in Kiev’s political circles was caused by Russia’s decision to shelve its WTO membership plans in light of continuing opposition from the US and the European Union. So how does this affect Ukraine, you ask? Russia is by far Ukraine’s most important trade partner and its biggest energy supplier. Ukraine imports 90% of its oil and most of its natural gas. Despite sharp political disagreements, yearly trade between Russia and Ukraine has grown from about $9 billion in 2000 to nearly $30 billion in 2007. A quarter of Ukraine’s exports is going to Russia.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest producers of cast iron and steel. However, many steel production facilities in Ukraine are owned by Russian businesses. Also, most electricity used by Ukraine’s steel mills comes from Russia. Ukraine is a large exporter of coal-derived fuel coke, mineral fertilizers and sulfuric acid. Ukraine is also a major producer of grain, sugar, meat and dairy products. Russia is the biggest foreign consumer of these Ukrainian products. Russia’s attempts to join the WTO meant pacifying Ukraine’s opposition by offering the country favorable trading status.
Now that Russia is getting ready to put its WTO aspirations on ice for a few years, Ukraine may be hit the hardest. Favorable trading status for Ukraine no longer makes economic sense for Russia, which is now more interested in protecting its own steel, chemical, and agricultural industries. For example, growing food prices in Europe increase viability of Russia’s own agricultural industry, making it attractive for investors. Trade with Russia also accounts for most of Ukraine’s hi-tech exports, without which the country risks becoming Poland-junior in the European economic hierarchy with no hope of serious growth.
With Ukraine’s steel production and coal mining industries behind Yanukovich and the country’s energy and agricultural sectors behind Timoshenko, the big business in Ukraine prompted the two largest parliamentary factions – Timoshenko’s BYT and Yanukovich’s Regions Party – to join forces against the country’s embattled president, whose stark anti-Russian rhetoric in the past weeks has irked the Kremlin and threatened Ukraine’s growing trade with its largest economic partner. While the West is worrying about Russian tanks taking over the Crimean Peninsula, the likely future of political life in Kiev will be shaped by a different kind of a hostile takeover. Yushchenko’s latest troubles are signs of how distant Ukraine’s president has become from his country’s economic reality.
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September 4, 2008
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A very useful rundown of an otherwise hard to understand country.
The forces of economics and personalities may be driving things more than the typical US concept of varying degrees of anti Russian feeling.
Is there some possibility that Ukraine could be (or is) gradually reordering its economy to make it more compatible with economies to the west – especially Germany?
Separately – I can see that the risk of energy starvation from Russia may scare Ukrainians. But Russia turning off (or turning down) the pipelines/electricity may accelerate Ukrainian resolve to bond with the Western camp.
Pete
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September 4, 2008
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Even if – or, rather, when – Ukraine joins the EU, the problem of dependency on Russian energy will be far from over, as we can see from the EU’s recent attempt to censure Russia over war in Georgia. Ukraine’s steel industry requires massive amounts of electrical power. The only way Ukraine can become self-sufficient in this regard is by building more nuclear power plants. However, due to Chernobyl history this idea does not sit well with most Ukrainians. I lived thirty miles from Chernobyl and I can understand them.
Ukraine’s international trade is growing, but it’s growing primarily with Russia and China and not with the EU, as the nationalists in Kiev would have preferred. The primary reason here is the economic competition from the New Europe and particularly from Poland. With the steel market oversaturated, agricultural products take up a bigger chunk of Ukraine’s exports. And this is where Ukraine runs into stiff competition from the EU’s new Eastern European members.
And then, most of Ukraine’s industrial, mining and agricultural production is concentrated in the pro-Russian east. Cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia are too deep for the nationalists to effectively play on whatever small differences that exist. In fact, majority of population in Ukraine to the east of Dnyepr speaks Russian as their primary language. Even in Kiev – the nation’s capital – you will hear Russian spoken on the street almost as frequently as Ukrainian. And this is despite the massive “ukrainization” effort conducted by the nationalists over the past twenty years.
Ukraine never existed as an independent state until 1990. Many in Ukraine find their new national identity trumpeted by nationalists from the western Ukraine a bit artificial. And the idea of antagonizing Russia does not sit well with most Ukrainians. In fact, there are far more tensions between eastern and western Ukraine than there are between Ukraine and Russia. If push comes to shove, Ukraine will be split right down the middle, with the eastern part holding most of the chips. Russians know this and Ukrainians know this and nobody wants to push things too far.
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September 5, 2008
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Neocons want to push it far. A bit of money here and there and you can always find the puppets to do your bidding at the expense of the country. They would love to see open hostilities between the two countries. As far as they are concerned the more that they kill each other, the better. It will also keep Russia occupied for the eventual raid in Iran.
The best plan of action is for Russia to be kind to Ukraine rather than saber rattling. Everyone got the Georgia message(Bear is back – but no match for NATO – not even close). If Russia can undercut the support for the neocons by appealing to the Western Ukranians, they can defuse the situation. Right now w/ the ugly puppet as President things could get ugly as war to weaken Russia is the goal of the neocons.
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I agree and I think this is the reason why Russia is trying to work not just with Yanukovich but also with Timoshenko: the Kremlin learned not to put all of its eggs in one basket.
I think you are overestimating NATO’s capabilities and underestimating Russia’s. What we’ve seen in Georgia was a small operation involving a single tank division, a few squadrons of support aircraft, and two brigades of VDV and Spetsnaz. Russia has been conducting similar operations in Chechnya for years.
There was little interesting about this campaign, other than Russia being able to keep its war preparations secret. But even that wasn’t too impressive considering that the 58th Army’s home base is just 30-some miles from the Georgian border and the Russians did not need to forward-deploy troops.
Most of the equipment the Russians used is nothing new. They didn’t need to use any of their hi-tech hardware. Even in Chechnya on occasion they deployed some hi-tech stuff, like the Ka-50, Mi-28N, and Su-27IB as a combat test. The Georgian army, on the other hand, fell apart so quickly, this wasn’t any kind of test for the Russian army. This was a much smaller and low-tech operation than, for example, the attack on Grozny in Dec 1999 – Jan 2000, which involved twice the number of troops – from the same 58th Army – Russia deployed in Georgia.
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September 5, 2008
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No wonder about underestimating Russian forces…
))
The Times wrote in one of its articles about ‘old’ Russian tanks saying that it is more convenient for solders to sit on the top of the vehicle rather than inside. Don’t know how to comment this. Sure there is no air-conditioner in old good T-72
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September 5, 2008
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Thanks for the expanded Ukranian political analysis. From what I’d read in the English-language Russian press, what we have is a violent split in the pro-EU bloc that benefits the pro-Russia bloc immensely. Some time ago I read Hrushevsky’s History of Ukraine, which was very well done and detailed the ethnoregional polyglot that was once and still is Ukraine. It would seem that few in power in the West have read this work. Understanding this history enables one to see how powerful the symbiotic relationship between Russia and Ukraine was/is and why it’s very unlikely to change no matter how hard Neocons try. The same is true of Azerbaijan’s and Georgia’s natural relationships with Russia. Geography will trump NATO; it’s really that simple.
And for your ammusement, Brown pretends to be tough on Russia
Karlof1
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September 5, 2008
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“Circus” is a good way to describe Ukraine’s political life. Endless protests at the Independence Square (I actually participated in an anti-Soviet protest there back in 1989, when I was in high school), fistfights in the Parliament, weekly accusations of treason and corruption among top politicians… Most Ukrainians stopped paying attention to this nonsense years ago. If you tell them you will cut taxes or issue tax refunds if elected president, you will have a good chance in the election in 2010. This is all that really moves Ukrainian voters these days. Timoshenko is exceptionally good at making convincing promises that the people know she cannot keep but vote for her anyway.
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