Posted on August 28, 2008 - by Venik
The War in Georgia
For the past two weeks I’ve been trying to collect as much information as possible about the situation in Georgia. I talked to more than a dozen Russian and US military experts, got in touch with my contacts in Tbilisi and North Ossetia, and exchanged information with dozens of journalists in Moscow and here in the States. The goal of spending all this free time – normally reserved for fishing – was to piece together the most complete picture of the events in the Caucasus. My main worry was that someone will beat me to the punch (like the Asia Times or Jane’s), rendering all my efforts redundant. Luckily, no one did.
Don’t get me wrong: volumes have been written on the subject of Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia and the subsequent military action by Russia against Saakashvili’s regime. Most of these reports and analysis were rubbish, but some were good – in a very limited way. All the people writing on the situation in Georgia and relations with Russia can be separated into four categories: idiots, the good old boys, gearheads, and strategists. The idiots talk primarily about how the West should punish Russia (or, in case with Russian idiots, how Russia should punish the West). The good old boys are trying to revive the language and ideas of the Cold War era. The gearheads are counting the tanks, comparing missile ranges, and analyzing tactical maneuvers. And, finally, the strategists are overreaching themselves in trying to predict the future.
I probably belong in all four categories. I think Russia should take more definitive steps to reassert itself on the international arena. For years I’ve been criticizing Putin for his timid foreign policy. I am convinced the Cold War never really ended. I have no doubt that, despite all the dangers, the Cold War was one of the most productive periods in the development of human civilization – our culture, science and technology. I’ve been known to spend weeks reading nothing but technical specifications of tanks, fighter jets, and missiles. And, as a noted armchair admiral, I would rarely pass up an opportunity to make a strategic prediction, far too often ending up looking like a complete jackass just a few months later.
Read my full report on the war in Georgia. It’s too long for the blog format, so I had to upload it as a PDF file.
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August 28, 2008
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I found your essay refreshing and informed. It would be nice to have info that refutes what appears to be propaganda generated by Stratfor saying Russia already had forces massed close to Georgia awaiting the order to counterattack. It would also seem wiser on the part of the Russian government to have framed Georia’s attack as terorism–which it clearly was–and thus their response as being quite appropriate. Then on the diplomatic front, Russia could accuse the West of arming and protecting a terrorist, and demand that he be arrested on such charges.
It’s quite a sight to witness all the hysteria, pent up for years, being unleashed by reactionary forces in the US, particularly those touting a secret “non-aggression” agreement between Putin and Merkel and other inannity. The Indoctrination System sure did a good job manipulating many weak minds.
It still would be great to see those captured Georgian maps and other miltary directives related to the attack.
Best,
karlof1
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August 28, 2008
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If Russia had amassed armor on the Georgian border the US would have informed Saakashvili. Russia demonstrated what it can do with “inferior” equipment and less of it. Hence all the chirping about “dilapidated” Russian army sent in massive numbers to overwhelm poor little Georgia. Russia needed to burst the bubble of self-delusion in the west about its alleged weakness and their alleged superiority.
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August 29, 2008
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I think your “Saakashvili’s Plan” description is correct, if one considers that at the beginning of the operations the Russians appeared weak at the U.N. Saakashvili still hopes to win, and is stalling for time:
…The 15 Security Council members began meeting late on Thursday and remained behind closed doors for two hours until early Friday morning to discuss the three-sentence statement. But council diplomats said one phrase in it was unacceptable to the Georgians, backed by the United States and Europeans. That wording called on all sides in the conflict “to renounce the use of force,” according to a draft of the text.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKN0737090620080808?sp=true
Although later, THE SAME event is interpreted differently:
…Russia’s initial response was to convene an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, hoping to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Georgia and South Ossetia. But the Russian draft resolution was contentious. The United State and others objected to language that appeared to exempt Russia from condemnation over the use of force.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1831073,00.html
Also, your Report lacks inquiry into the US motivation. Putin’s musings aside, surely, there must have been compelling reasons for the US to endorse and support such an adventure?
Alex
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August 29, 2008
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Actually, what Putin said about Bush’s motivation isn’t an original thought. I’ve seen similar allegations published online as early as August 11, when McCain first spoke of the war in Georgia. Republicans are desperate. This election campaign was going to be all about the war in Iraq, and now they have a vital diversion, which also allowed McCain to score popularity points.
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August 29, 2008
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Putin stated in his CNN interview that Georgian military officials went on TV and issued a declaration of war agaisnt the Ossetians not once but twice. Russia then responded to the Georgian act of terrorism in a manner far more reserved than what the US and NATO have done in Afghanistan.
The primary Big Lie promoted by the US and its Western allies is that this is solely an act of Russian aggression that must be punished. Nowhere has there been any condemnation of Georgia’s terrorism or praise for Russia’s measured response. If it had been the US or the Israelis, Tbilisi would have been reduced to rubble, thousands of Georgian civilians would be dead, the whole country would still be occupied, and the occupation would likely last years. There are several previous templates for Georgia’s terroristic act, one pointed-out in your report and the 2006 Israeli terrorism inflicted on Lebanon–an act of terror that never met one sanction by the EU, US, UNSC, or NATO. So it seems fairly clear how the script was supposed to run.
EU/NATO/US continue to push their Big Lie in formulating their policy follow-ups. Why this persistence when the available evidence clearly shows Saakishvili to be a terrorist? There was a very visible bump in the sagging poll numbers for McCain at the start of this incident, which have disipated because of several factors, the Democrat Party Convention being the most important. It isn’t the first time people in other countries have been killed to boost the sagging fortunes of US politicians/political parties.
Now we see the propaganda war heating up, with the terrorist Saakishvili given a megaphone instead of being handcuffed and led away to The Hague. The most obvious and productive Russian countermove would be to demand payment for its hydrocabons in roubles. We shall see what happens next.
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August 29, 2008
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Russia was going to start selling gas and oil in rubles in April, but had to postpone the opening of the commodities exchange in St. Petersburg until later this year due to technical problems. I am sure this is still coming. However, this will lead to a stronger ruble, which may also have some negative impact on the Russian economy.
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August 29, 2008
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Why are we seeing now uncorroborated reports that the Georgian patrol boat did manage to put a missile into the side of the Russian cruiser Moskva before being sunk? I am not buying it myself.
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/georgian-navys.html
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/naval-lessons-o.html
Are the spin doctors in the west trying to boost up their moral after a catastrophic defeat of their proxies in Georgia? Maybe the US seamen in the Black Sea need some courage boost?
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August 29, 2008
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Since the encounter with the Georgian “navy”, cruiser “Moskva” and its escorts have been seen in Sevastopol and now they are in Abkhazia. There are tons of photos and videos. None of the ships show any damage.
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August 29, 2008
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Venik, you rock…
Don’t stop the excellent effort and coverage.
Excellent analysis and synopsis.
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August 31, 2008
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Great coverage Venik!
Do you see any significance in the US / Russia dispute over the fate of Hummers?
http://izvestia.ru/armia2/article3119879/
Will Russia be able to dissect any sensitive crypto or communications equipment?
Is there any truth in the Russian suspicion that since Georgian radars kept silent for most of the time during the conflict (?), Georgians were being fed satellite info about Russian aircraft by the US that helped them shoot down some of the aircraft? Weren’t AWACS and radars in Turkey also able to monitor sky over Georgia? Were they able to feed real time info to Georgians? Maybe it worked through the Georgian “NATO bases” that Russia decided to take over in the final days of conflict? I wouldn’t be surprised if Georgian radars were integrated with NATO. That is typical. During NATO bombing of Serbia, that you have been covering in great detail, Russia and China may have been feeding Serbia with satellite data – perhaps that is the real reason why the US had bombed the Chinese embassy back then? Is it possible that some embassies in Tbilisi have also been pushing their luck?
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August 31, 2008
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It is possible the NATO provided Georgians information gathered by air defense radars in Turkey. However, this is no very likely. This information would have been useless to the Georgians because their SAMs are Soviet-made and cannot be linked with NATO radars in real time. Georgia lacked integrated air defense capability.
It is also possible that Georgia had access to NATO satellite imagery tracking the movements of Russian ground forces. This also would have been of no particular use to the Georgian army, which was already in full retreat on the second day of the war.
Depending on the type and modification of the HMMWVs, the captured vehicles could have carried any number of sensitive weapons and electronic systems. These vehicles were not export models, but actually belonged to the US Army. Therefore, any equipment they carried, including digital encryption systems, were the same type used by the rest of the US Army. Potentially, losing these vehicles to the Russians is a serious security breach for the US.
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September 2, 2008
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Thanks Venik for your Georgia coverage! You present a very concise and thoughful analysis.
To use the civilian populations as a mobile roadblock … that makes sense. Why else bombard Tshkvali overnight, given the few military targets in there?
This conflict has also been an eye opener for the impact of western media propaganda …wow …
Two questions for you : do you have any reports of fighting north east and nortwest of Thskinvali – ie the Georgians trying close the sack, or cut the Roki tunnel road?
Secondly : what is the latest on the Georgian casualties? I have a feeling there are many thousand soldier with shrapnel injuries from Russian artillery and CAS.
Thanks for the good work
FkD
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September 9, 2008
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Hi Venik,
1. Do you think Russia managed to get a grip on any Israeli technology such as the UAV’s when it raided Georgian bases and airports?
(http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5559)
Would bisecting them give them some advantage? Georgia reportedly had about 40 Israeli UAV’s of 8 different types? How many did they loose? If it is true Israel wanted to use Georgia as a launchpad for strike against Iran, it is probably no longer an option? US can probably twist arm to Turkey and use
Iraq if they want to, but it is probably off limits for Israel because of political sensitivity? What are Israel options now for striking Iran?
2. What do you make of Russian naval exercise in Venezuela employing “Peter the Great” and “Admiral Chabanenko” that has been planned “a year ago” ? Is Russia now eager to prove that whatever US
can do – Russia can do better and even raise the stakes in geopolitical poker game? US still do not seem to read the political language that comes from
Moscow? If they don’t like what they are hearing, they just chose to ignore it? It is very commendable that Russia didn’t lose sense of humor despite all it had gone through.
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=335431
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=335590
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5570
“Putin last week warned that Russia would respond to the U.S. aid shipments to Georgia, but he did not say how. “We don’t understand what American ships are doing on the Georgian shores, but this is a question of taste, it’s a decision by our American colleagues,” Putin said. “The second question is why the humanitarian aid is being delivered on naval vessels armed with the newest rocket systems.” Russia’s reaction to the U.S. deployment to the Black Sea “will be calm, without any sort of hysteria. But of course, there will be an answer,”
Putin said.”
- He “didn’t say how”, but now we know – Russian ships in Caribbean for a start! This will be a much more enjoyable cruise for Russians in November than for NATO in the Baltic or Black Sea at the same time of year! I bet Russian navy will be bringing
swimming suites and sun bathing lotion with them?
3. Is US permanent presence in Georgian ports likely?
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5564
In relation to 2) would that result with Russian permanent presence in Venezuela or maybe Iran?
Regards,
BB
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September 9, 2008
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US mocks Russian naval plans in Caribbean !
Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed Monday that it intends to conduct the exercises. In response, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack poked fun at Russia’s navy. He said that if Russia really intends to send ships to the Caribbean, “then they found a few ships that can make it that far.”
(http://www.infolive.tv/en/infolive.tv-28952-israelnews-us-mocks-russian-naval-plans-caribbean)
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September 10, 2008
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/09/russians-pilfer-us-equipment/
“Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said Russian troops broke open two large shipping containers in the Georgian port of Poti and “pilfered” the contents. Sensitive communications and electronics equipment used by U.S. forces during a joint U.S.-Georgia military exercise prior to the Aug. 8 incursion had already been shipped out of the port, he added.” However…
“The Russian newspaper Izvestia reported that the captured equipment included Global Positioning System equipment used in weapons targeting, identification, friend-or-foe electronic gear and classified radio and reconnaissance equipment.”
…
with respect to HMMWV’s…
“Gen. Conway said, “I think we’re going to send the Russians a bill and tell them, you know, either pay up or give us back our vehicles, guys. You know, that’s not the way we do business.”
- Who cares? Generals business is bankrupt, isn’t it? There are new businessmen in town. And they have their own rules on how to conduct business.
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September 13, 2008
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Excellent recap. There are a few things missing however:
1. No mention of “Operation Caucasus 2008″ and “Operation Immediate Response”, both of took place in the region during the second half of July. I’m not sure how it is possible to discuss the relative ‘pre-positioning’ of the forces on each side of the conflict without taking these maneuvers into account…
2. There were numerous incidents in which people on both sides died in the run up to the outbreak of the actual ‘shooting war’ e.g. artillery exchanges, roadside bombs, etc. True, they don’t change the basic fact that Georgia initiated the massive escalation, but a knowledge of these smaller ‘precursor’ events is important to a full understanding of what happened.
Tost
P.S. I believe the 1,692 number has deflated somewhat as well..
http://ph2dot1.blogspot.com/2008/08/immediate-response.html
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