Posted on August 14, 2008 - by Venik

The Cease-Fire Deal and Life in Tbilisi

Mark Deen and Reed Landberg of Bloomberg have beat me to the punch with their Russia’s War With Georgia May Reopen U.S. Rift With Europe. Next time I will have to type faster. If you follow the news from Russia and Georgia, you are probably aware of the extraordinary effort by Nicolas Sarkozy to broker a cease-fire deal. The terms of the agreement heavily favor Moscow, allowing its troops to “implement additional security measures” not just in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but across all of Georgia.

The peace deal quickly gained support from Italy and Germany, while the UK and Poland wanted to see the EU adopt a tougher line against Russia. Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to publicly show Washington’s support for Saakashvili, while privately trying to persuade the Georgian president to accept the French-brokered peace deal.

Another sticking point of the cease-fire deal is Russia’s insistence on excluding any references to Georgia’s territorial integrity and instead using words like “sovereignty” and “independence”. Today Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.” While the US reiterated its support for Georgia’s territorial integrity, Lavrov’s point of view is clearly far more realistic.

South Ossetian refugees heading for safety in Russia.

There is another aspect to the wrangling over Georgia’s territorial integrity concept. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Russia’s most important leverage against Georgia. For as long as these two provinces formally remain a part of Georgia, there will be no peace in the country. Georgia will remain in limbo and unable to fulfill its aspirations to join the EU and the NATO. If Georgia suddenly decides “The hell with South Ossetia and Abkhazia – Moscow can have them”, Russia will gain territory but lose leverage. Thus, there is a slight possibility that, after a good tug-of-war with the US in the UN Security Council, Moscow will eventually agree to some form of “territorial integrity” language in the final peace deal. The situation will then return to prewar status-quo and start escalating from there.

In other news, as the fog of war over Tbilisi clears and patriotism subsides, people start asking questions. I was finally able to get through to one of my contacts in Tbilisi to have some first-hand information. Needless to say, he is not particularly happy with my blog and thinks that I am a pig-headed Ukrainian who needs to learn tolerance and expand his geopolitical horizons. He’s probably right. In any case, Georgians are starting to question the wisdom and, indeed, the sanity of their president.

Russian armored vehicles near the border between Georgia and South Ossetia.

Patriotism is gradually turning to depression as Tbilisi residents encounter their retreating army and begin to realize that this was not the overwhelming victory over Moscow trumpeted by their president. By nature, Georgians are optimists (albeit melodramatic ones and prone to severe mood swings) and depression quickly gives way to anger. It’s not that they are surprised they lost the military action – in the back of their minds most Georgians never seriously expected to defeat Russia – but they are appalled by their army’s lackluster performance and by Saakashvili’s great display of personal cowardice during his PR trip to Gori.

For many years Saakashvili has been telling his country that the West was firmly behind all his policies. America’s humanitarian aid and the EU’s good wishes aside, this turned out not to be the case. As they are opening cans of USAF-delivered “Spam”, Georgians can’t help but wonder if Saakashvili was the right man for the job. Apparently, Saakashvili himself is growing increasingly wary of things to come. The opposition is waiting for the wave of wartime patriotism to dissipate and preparing a major assault on their fearless leader.

Saakashvili’s former brother-in-arms and the country’s ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili was once again denied entry into Georgia. Okruashvili and Saakashvili grew apart in 2006. Okruashvili was fired from his post as the defense minister, charged with corruption, arrested, and later released on parole. He accused Saakashvili of trying to assassinate him and flew to France, where he received the status of a political refugee. He was tried in-absentia by a Tbilisi court and sentenced to 11 years in jail.

Georgian army official in charge of investigating cases of disappearing humanitarian aid. He points to a hole under the fence and claims that rats ate all the aid. (For the folks out there with no sense of humor: joke alert).

In a phone conversation with Saakashvili on August 12, Okruashvili asked for a pardon and announced that he was “ready to support the president despite the many disagreements that led to the intense standoff.” The same day, during an anti-war rally in Tbilisi, Saakashvili brought up the conversation with his former defense minister and said “I can forget the insults for patriotism is our higher goal.” Nevertheless, Okruashvili was denied entry to Georgia. The reason for this decision by Saakashvili is quite simple: about a year ago Okruashvili aligned himself with Saakashvili’s opposition and was considered by some as a possible presidential candidate. Saakashvili is feeling his public support slipping away and the last thing he needs in Tbilisi is another opposition figurehead.

Other than that, life in Tbilisi is business as usual: gas, electricity and hot water are available only on select days and even then just for a few hours. This has been the case for many months and has nothing to do with the war. Just over a year ago Saakashvili proclaimed that Georgia was no longer reliant on Russian electricity. Apparently, Georgian authorities were able to reduce the country’s consumption of electricity by thrusting the country into the dark ages for a few hours every day. Georgia’s sad economic state, however, did not stop Saakashvili from spending nearly a billion US dollars every year on rearming and training the country’s small army. Money well spent, Misha.

Georgian army walking back home. Rumor has it, Russian helicopter pilots don’t look kindly on army trucks heading toward Tbilisi.

By now many of you probably have seen Larry King’s interview with Gorbachev and Saakashvili’s “rebuttal”. Gorbachev talked about the need for peace and the long history of Russians and Georgians living together in harmony. Saakashvili called Gorbachev Kremlin’s PR man, mentioned KGB two dozen times, refused to announce his support for the French-brokered peace deal, and generally made a complete ass of himself. In other words, Saakashvili was being himself.

Finally, some of you may be wondering why Russian armored columns appear to be aimlessly roving around Georgian countryside, confusing the hell out of CNN’s Anderson Cooper. Some American political analysts are saying that this is Russia’s way to thumb its nose at the US. I am sorry to disappoint them: Georgian army withdrew so quickly that they left behind huge stashes of weapons and ammunition. Left unsecured, these stockpiles will no doubt be looted and used to fuel a civil war in the country. Perhaps this is exactly what the Georgian commanders had in mind when they left all these weapons behind. Saakashvili wants NATO presence, even if limited, in the country and an escalating ethnic conflict is the only way he may get his wish.

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