Posted on August 31, 2008 - by Venik

Operation Coverass

On Monday the EU is expected to announce countermeasures to Russia’s recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian diplomatic sources hinted that any practical economic sanctions against Russia may lead to reduced oil supplies to the European Union. And so the question is: does the Brussels have the balls to take on Moscow or will the EU’s response be just another diplomatic fart in Russia’s general direction.

A senior French diplomatic source was quoted by Reuters as saying that no specific sanctions against Russia will be announced at the EU meeting on Monday. The EU is choosing between two draft resolutions against Russia: the “mild” one prepared by Italy and the “tough” one prepared by the UK and Poland. The Italian version does not call for any specific sanctions – economic or otherwise – against Russia.

Forecasting Russia’s political future is as difficult as it is entertaining. My personal opinion is that the EU will choose against sanctions. Following the spike in oil prices earlier this year and mass strikes by truck drivers and fishermen across the European Union, it is difficult to see European leaders wishing to repeat the experience. In the recent weeks Russia showed that it is not all talk. There is no reason to doubt that Russia will make good on its promise to restrict energy supplies to Europe.

Gordon Brown is talking tough, which I find suspicious. Whenever Brown is full of hot air and needs to vent, he starts using colorful language, rich in metaphor but lacking in substance. Like when he threatened a “root and branch” review of relations with Russia or promised urgent action to prevent Britain “sleepwalking” into an energy dependence on Russia. Brown also argues for more funding for the pipeline project to carry Caspian gas to Europe via Turkey.

Unless Britain plans to have the pipeline ready by Monday, my guess is the EU’s upcoming resolution will be limited to tough language and unspecified threats against future political cooperation with Russia. Something in Brown’s tone and his choice of words tells me that all this bluster is how he covers his ass ahead of tomorrow’s toothless resolution. A typical middle manager behavior. And cover his ass he must, for Miliband set us up for the greatest show on Earth, but what’s coming is another rerun of “Law and Order”.

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