Posted on August 23, 2008 - by Venik

Old Dogs, Old Tricks.

Just finished reading “How to Deter Russia”, by William Courtney and Kenneth Yalowitz (The Washington Post, August 23, 2008, p. A15). Courtney is the former US Ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia. Yalowitz is the former US Ambassador to Belarus and Georgia. It is absolutely astonishing how two diplomats with so much relevant experience can misinterpret the situation in Georgia so badly. Here’s what these two clowns had to say:

“Western policy should have three dimensions: countering Russian aggression, enhancing regional deterrence, and strengthening recovery and governance in Georgia. All will raise the cost of future aggression.”

Enhancing regional deterrence? This is diplomatic speak for “rearming Saakashvili’s military”. Some people never learn. They are still thinking that, perhaps, if Georgia had more tanks or anti-aircraft weapons, it could have defeated or at least deterred the Russians. This line of thinking is what got Saakashvili and his Washington masters in trouble in the first place. Courtney and Yalowitz propose more of the same. Insanity, they say, is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result.

Here’s another pearl or strategic thinking:

“The Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and Georgia’s South Caucasus neighbors — Azerbaijan and Armenia — have shared interests in secure, unimpeded energy and overland transport to Georgia’s Black Sea ports and Turkey.”

I got some news for the two former Ambassadors: Azerbaijan and Armenia are still at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia has been keeping peace between the two neighbors since 1994. Armenia is closely aligned with Russia and Azerbaijan is unlikely to repeat Saakashvili’s mistakes.

And the brilliant conclusion of the “what-not-to-do” action plan by Courtney and Yalowitz:

“Russia won a tactical victory in Georgia over an outgunned and much smaller force. Ultimately, however, the attack is likely to put in motion forces that will diminish Moscow’s ability to treat neighbors with impunity. Deterring future aggression is the best response — and starts with strengthening the countries in that region.”

So, maybe 200 tanks wasn’t enough for Georgia to defeat the Russians. How about 300 tanks? I think that should do the trick. Courtney and Yalowitz are old men and, I guess, it’s silly to hope for any fresh ideas from them. Still, one would expect lessons to be learned, especially from the kind of beating Georgia received not two weeks ago. Instead of rearming Georgia, the US can just flush its millions of dollars down the toilet: the result will be the same.

Here’s a crazy idea: why not just leave Russia alone inside its safety zone before we get into a fight nobody can win.

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