Posted on August 19, 2008 - by Venik

Latest Developments in Georgia

The Independent just published the most ridiculous timeline of Russia’s operation in Georgia. It is not surprising since the article relies on analysis by Pavel Felgenhauer – Russia’s leading quack in the field of military pseudo-analysis distilled for amateur foreign journalists who can’t read. The problem with “A new world order: The week Russia flexed its military muscle” starts pretty much in the opening paragraph: “The outcome was the humiliating rout of the Georgian army, pushed back by a huge Russian land, air and sea assault…” Apparently a 15,000-strong Russian force fighting the 32,000-strong Georgian army constitutes “David versus Goliath combat in the Caucasus on 8 August.” Not to mention that on August 8 Russia didn’t even have 15,000 troops on the ground in Georgia. Most Russian troops were still in transit. On top of this, the vast majority of Russian forces deployed in Georgia never fired a shot: the Georgian army was running too fast for the Russians to catch up.

Let’s forgive The Independent its amateurism and pay attention to the more serious publications. An excellent review of the Russian military operation in Georgia was published in the August 20 edition of Asia Times: “Georgian planning flaws led to failure”, by Richard Giragosian. The article contains the most detailed description of Russian units, equipment and tactics used in the war. A great analysis of the geopolitical reasons and consequences of the war was also published by Asia Times: “Americans play Monopoly, Russians chess”, by Spengler. It gives you a great insight into motives behind Russia’s actions. A brief but accurate description of the Russian operation in Georgia was published by Jane’s: “Flashpoint Georgia”, by Nick Brown and Christopher F Foss. In other words, if you are trying to understand what is going on in Georgia, stick with sources that specialize in defense and geopolitical analysis, instead of the ones focusing on London’s social gossip.

Pentagon sources report that Russia is deploying short-range ballistic missile launchers SS-21 “Tochka” in South Ossetia. The missile will give Russia immediate strike capability across much of Georgia’s territory.

So, what is going on in Georgia and how will it all end… The Russians departed from Georgia’s naval base in Poti, but then returned and blew up the “Dioskuria” missile boat, Georgia’s most advanced naval vessel. Russian aviation destroyed most Georgian air defense radars, runways and bases across the country. According to a number of reports, Russia is deploying SS-21 short-range ballistic missile launchers in South Ossetia. This should give Russia short-notice strike capability against stationary or area targets across most of Georgia’s territory. There have been some reports of Russia deploying advanced air defenses to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. These may include long-range SAMs to control airspace over all of Georgia. Additional air reconnaissance assets are being deployed at Russian airbases near Georgia to monitor movements of Georgian troops. The Russian army was ready for this conflict, but it had to keep its preparations low-key so not to alarm or discourage Saakashvili’s military geniuses planning the attack against South Ossetia. Right now the Russians no longer need to hide their activities along Georgia’s border and so the Russian army will want to cover all of its bases (and all of Georgia’s bases as well).

Georgia’s “Dioskuria” fast missile craft was blown up by Russian forces at its base in Poti.

The BBC finally decided to shine a light on the Georgian army’s brilliant performance and casualties in this short but devastating for Georgia war:

Feet poked out of green military body bags. They were on the floor and in the cabinets – 16 bodies I counted. This was just from the first part of the day, staff said.

“They’ve been dying before we could treat them,” one doctor told us later.

A senior doctor said the hospital had been handling an average of 350 casualties each day. ..

As the week progressed and the news got worse, we heard more and more Georgians denouncing their government for getting into this unequal war…

Much of Georgia’s American-trained army is in disarray. Many troops have taken off their uniforms and returned home.

We came across several units who admitted they had no orders and did not know what to do. But there are still Georgian troops posted along the roads and highways, close to Russian lines.

(Source: “Georgia reeling from war with Russia”, by Andrew North, BBC, August 18, 2008)

Interesting to note that so far Saakashvili’s defense minister acknowledged the loss of just over two hundred of his soldiers. The Russian military gave a conservative estimate of Georgia’s military casualties at two thousand dead. As wartime patriotism in Georgia gives way to criticism of the government’s actions, Saakashvili has good reasons to conceal the true extent of his army’s losses. For different reasons, Russia is also not willing to advertise Georgian losses. Russia and Georgia exchanged a few POWs. Meanwhile, NATO brass gathered in Brussels and after a lengthy meeting came to an agreement: they don’t think it was very nice of Russia to invade Georgia. They say Putin had to cry himself to sleep that night. Russia accused NATO of protecting a criminal regime and pulled out of a naval exercise in the Baltic Sea and canceled a visit by a US naval frigate to Kamchatka, thus beating NATO to the punch once again.

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