Let Me Tell You…

Posted on August 12, 2008 - by

Georgia’s Blunder

Georgia News
Georgia’s Blunder

Saakashvili’s hysterical propaganda aside, it is now evident that Russia’s operation in Georgia was strictly limited to defending the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia against Georgian aggression. Consider the facts: Russia deployed just 6,000 troops in South Ossetia and 9,000 troops  in Abkhazia (and even these modest numbers are probably overstated by the press) against Georgia’s 32,000 army.

According to Abkhazian government, the Georgians were massing forces at the nearby Senaki base. A small Russian paratrooper detachment, later shown on CNN, made a brief excursion to the recently-renovated Georgian military base near Senaki, located just a few miles outside of Abkhazia’s border. This was the only move by Russian ground forces into the Georgia proper.


A South Ossetian woman wept as she embraced a Russian soldier in Tskhinvali. (Photo: Maxim Shipenkov/European Pressphoto Agency)

Military experts estimate that a full-scale invasion of Georgia with the goal of “regime change” a la Bush in Iraq would have required at the very minimum 90,000 Russian troops. The number of aircraft employed by Russia – only 50 (mostly small Su-25 ground attack jets) – also confirms that it pursued strictly military targets of tactical nature.

It is absolutely mind-boggling that with NATO’s intelligence-gathering capabilities in the region anyone in the West could have seriously considered Saakashvili’s panic-stricken reports of Russian tanks near Tbilisi.

The Georgian army’s embarrassing performance against a numerically-inferior Russian force is a major blow to the prestige of the US military, which spent the past decade training and arming the Georgians. Georgian soldiers ran faster than Spetsnaz could drive their BTRs and sometimes the Georgian army retreated even when there were no Russian troops in sight. Such was the case with the retreat of several thousand Georgian troops from Gori, witnessed by Western journalists. The following is an excerpt from a report by The Telegraph and Reuters reporters on the scene in Gori:

A Georgian official has said it is transferring “all its troops” from South Ossetia towards Tbilisi amid fighting in the city of Gori, about 35 miles to the south-east of the capital.

Georgians were witnessed by the Telegraph in a full scale disorganized and panicked retreat from Gori. They were crammed into vehicles heading down road from Gori to Tbilisi, the capital. They say 6,000-7,000 Russian troops are heading their way and the Georgians are abandoning their positions.

Kakha Lomaia, a senior Georgian security official, said: “We received very reliable information that the Russians decided to move towards Gori. That’s why we decided to pull out all our troops and to relocate them – to defend Tbilisi.”

Lomaia has since claimed that Russian forces have “captured” the city. However a Reuters reporter in Gori said: “We are right now driving through the town and I see no trace of troops or military vehicles. It is absolutely deserted.” (“Georgia: Russia fighting on several fronts as Georgian troops withdraw to defend Tbilisi”, by Damien McElroy and Adrian Blomfield, The Telegraph, August 12, 2008)

Apparently, the Georgian army in Gori – one of the country’s largest cities and the home to a major Georgian military base – ran in panic upon hearing rumors of a possible Russian attack. In just three-and-a-half days a smaller Russian force not only repelled Georgia’s carefully-planned attack against South Ossetia’s capital, but forced the entire Georgian army into a disorganized retreat back to Tbilisi.


Saakashvili was touring Gori when a Russian jet flew overhead. The Commander-in-Chief of Georgia’s Armed Forces screeched “Let’s get out of here!” and then dropped to the ground and covered his head in front of dozens Western journalists, all of whom remained standing and taking photos. (Photo: Joao Silva for The New York Times)

Judging by the photos from the fighting zone, Russian forward units were limited almost exclusively to GRU Spetsnaz and VDV troops with light armored vehicles, supported by a small number of ground attack planes and helicopter gunships. Few of the heavy tanks and artillery, shown by CNN and BBC crossing into South Ossetia from Russia, actually entered combat.

In other news, Ramzan Kadyrov – a former Chechen warlord, now the president of Chechnya and the leader of his personal and very sizable private army – offered Russia up to ten thousand trained Chechen fighters to defend South Ossetia from Georgia. Ten thousand armed-to-the-teeth Chechens is all that’s needed to turn the region into a complete madhouse. The Russian military politely declined this generous offer from their former foe.


GRU Spetsnaz (you can tell it by the weapons they are carrying) arrived in the Khurcha settlement in the breakaway region of Abkhazia. (Photo: Reuters)

Russia has made it clear to the West that it will be seeking to unseat Saakashvili. Also, statements by senior Russian Foreign Ministry officials suggest that Moscow no longer supports Georgia’s territorial integrity. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gregory Karasin told the Russian news agency Interfax that the future status of South Ossetia will now depend entirely on the wishes of its residents. Following Georgia’s sneak attack against South Ossetia that claimed more than 2,000 civilian lives, the wishes of Ossetians are now crystal clear.

For now, the lower house of the Russian Parliament agreed not to hold a vote on recognizing South Ossetia’s independence until the end of military action in the region. There is little doubt, however, that when the vote goes forward – and its outcome is easy to predict – it will be promptly pushed through the Federation Council and supported by the government. Saakashvili’s attempt to retake South Ossetia by terrorizing its civilian population has backfired and now it is obvious that Georgia lost both South Ossetia and Abkhazia forever.

Now Medvedev and Putin will sit back and let the French do all the peace negotiating their heart desires, while occasionally bombing targets in Georgia, as well as maintaining travel restrictions and economic sanctions against the country. Russia will also continue to pursue Saakashvili on the charges of war crimes and genocide. Following Saakashvili’s military action against South Ossetia, Georgia’s chances of joining the NATO went from slim to none. The EU flags Saakashvili used to stage his propaganda speeches will be as close as Georgia will come to joining the European Union in the foreseeable future.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Join the forum discussion on this post - (1) Posts

Related posts:

  1. Georgia’s Attack on South Ossetia: Washington’s Role
  2. Russians in Georgia: Goals and Consequences
  3. Timeline of Georgia-Russia Conflict
  4. Russia’s War Booty
  5. War in Georgia: What’s Coming

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 12th, 2008 at 1:13 pm and is filed under Georgia, News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Comments

We'd love to hear yours!



  1. Visit My Website

    August 13, 2008

    Permalink

    anonymous said:

    > The U.S. wouldn’t dare attack Russian soil.

    I think you don’t understand how wars are fought now. Communism has been defeated so the west has no interest in invading Russia (and never had any). And, by the way, communism defeated itself. It collapsed because it couldn’t compete any longer. It was inefficient, as well as evil.

    Russia is still very much a 3rd world country. If it attacked the west it would be DECISIVELY defeated in any non-nuclear war, mainly because of the west’s overwhelming superiority in technology and Russia’s conscript army.

    Why would the west want to attack a 3rd world country? This Russian psychosis is beyond sick. The only reason the west would have any interest at all is precisely the one that supposedly lay behind Russia’s invasion of Georgia: to stop a bully imposing its will (on e.g., the baltic states). In the West there is a strong support for the principle of self-determination, and the greatest aggressor the world has ever seen –which violated that principle at every opportunity– was the USSR, with Russia in the driving seat.

    So, you want to explore who dares? Invade a NATO country.

    I am from a formerly poor European country and even I was shocked at the poverty in Russia, even in Moscow. Everything was so utterly 3rd rate and clapped out it was unbelievable. It seemed that many in the west had swallowed lies about the extent of the Russian threat to our freedom. But having seen what Russia did to Poland and others… “lies” is perhaps putting it strongly. Brutal repression doesn’t need a lot of technology or much of a standard of living. I haven’t been in Russia for 10 years but, dear boy, you live in a gulag. The average American or European on welfare is better off. Your taunts about invasion are laughable. When did you last feel like invading a prison?

    Your entire society is an evil house of cards, run by a corrupt, kleptocratic, plutocracy–one that likes to smuggle Russian wealth out of the country and bank it in the west. Your public attitudes to the west are very reminiscent of 1930s German attitudes to the outside world: resentful, blaming others, jealous and riddled with neurotic inferiority (and for no reason). A closer inspection of your own country’s faults would be a better idea, starting with the lack of any political opposition internally, effective state control of the media, the lamentable state of the judiciary etc.

    The bottom line for Russia is “How Dare These People Attempt to Assert National Sovereignty Over Their National Territory”… we won’t allow it because we are strong and we will impose our will.

    I am no apologist for Americans, indeed I despise the current administration, and I regret the likely impact this Russian foolishness will have on the US election. So Russia wins in the short term by imposing its will but in the long term you will lose big, just like you lost the cold war. Russia has made enemies out of Europeans. I hope you enjoy the consequences. Given a choice between America and Russia it’s no contest. For all its many faults America is not run by QUITE such an evil gang of crooks and its citizens are vastly freer than Russia’s. None of us have any desire to live in your gulag or to be governed by the despots who run it.

    Russia could very easily have assisted in organizing a plebiscite in the breakaway provinces and organized international monitors to ensure that the vote was free and fair. The West, in particular the countries that supported Kosovo’s independence, would have had to accept it, and why not?

    Russia’s claim to have responded to an attack is utterly bogus. The attack was provoked and was long prepared for.

    My limited personal response to Russia’s deliberate preference for military action will be write to my member of parliament and request travel restrictions on Russians entering the EU and the expropriation of the assets of Russian oligarchs.

    Reply



  2. Visit My Website

    August 13, 2008

    Permalink

    venik4 said:

    Communism defeated? Is that why the US owes China so much money? Don’t waste your time reading intelligent thoughts. Go vote for McCain so he can drive the last nail into the coffin of the US economy. And then we’ll talk about your “decisive edge”.

    Reply



  3. Visit My Website

    August 13, 2008

    Permalink

    anonymous said:

    My advice to all ignorant and weak Americans would be that you stop helping thugs like Georgian and other criminal states near Russia’s borders. Otherwise Russians will royally and deeply penetrate their and their helpers/advisors’(i.e. your) asses. Don’t forget Russia has got more than 5000 missiles aimed at US territories including US mainland capable of hitting from surface, sea or the orbit overwhelming your fledgling National Missile Defense system. So behave and start respecting Russian Imperial power. Russia is a true all-weather friend of India and they supported us always against Islamist thugs of Pakistan and other nations when you were helping Talibans to end Russian rule in Afganistan. You guys even supported Islamist criminals of Kashmir fighting Indian security forces before 9/11. Just see how our forces have massacred 1Million Kashmiri Muslim fanatics and their dogs primarily using Russian and Indian weapons over the last two decades. You still pay an aid of USD1Bn to fucking Pakistani general who is an Islamist at heart. How dare you?
    You gotta soon pay a very big price.

    Reply



  4. Visit My Website

    August 14, 2008

    Permalink

    anonymous said:

    1. Communism has been defeated?

    - See the reply above. Nothing else to add.

    2. The west has no interest in invading Russia (and never had any).

    - Cheating and lying all the way. Learn history, my dear European intellectual!

    3. Russia is still very much a 3rd world country.

    - That depends on criteria used. You’d better refer to recent STRATFOR report.

    4. If it attacked the west it would be DECISIVELY defeated in any non-nuclear war.

    - Who said it will be a non-nuclear war? It will, just read Russia’s new military strategy officially approved few years ago. After Hiroshima and Nagasaki we all know nukes can be used in ANY war.

    5. …mainly because of the west’s overwhelming superiority in technology

    - ha-ha! West’s superiority in technology results in the weapons sales figures to other countries. Compare Russia’s sales of arms in 1998 and 2008. This is what foreign customers choose. And how come that the West hires Russian spaceships to deliver cargos to ISS? Read this article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station
    maybe you’ll understand something about West’s superiority in technology :-)

    6. Why would the west want to attack a 3rd world country?

    - Why the West wanted to invade former Yugoslavia? Irag? Afganistan? And dozens smaller countries?

    7. In the West there is a strong support for the principle of self-determination.

    - Oh, really? Tell it to Serbians!

    8. …and the greatest aggressor the world has ever seen –which violated that principle at every opportunity– was the USSR, with Russia in the driving seat.

    - yes, this is the key to all current speculations! Once again, learn history, man!

    9. So, you want to explore who dares? Invade a NATO country.

    - Typically paranoidal way of thinking! The answer is between the lines – THERE IS SOMEONE WHO DARES! But why should Russia invade to explore if Russia ALREADY KNOWS who is that?

    10. …even I was shocked at the poverty in Russia, even in Moscow.

    - In 1998? When your beloved Eltsin ruled Russia? That’s true. Anyway, everything depends on where and what to search for. Engaged and imaginative person can easily find a lot of sh*t even in Buckingham palace 8-)))

    11. It seemed that many in the west had swallowed lies about the extent of the Russian threat to our freedom.

    - that’s correct. Russia never threatens anyone’s freedom!

    12. But having seen what Russia did to Poland and others…

    - so you’re Polish? That explains a lot!

    13. Brutal repression doesn’t need a lot of technology or much of a standard of living. – you’re wrong.

    - Really BRUTAL repression DOES NEED a lot of technology! That’s what is all about – take a look at the USA.

    14. I haven’t been in Russia for 10 years but, dear boy, you live in a gulag.

    - Are you normal? Never knew they had tourist bureaus in Gulag! What about all those Russians travelling the world? Millions of KGB officers, their wives and children? All Mr. Abramovich’s friends? Your opinions were based on 10-year long impressions and newspaper articles. Being brain-washed for ten years means to be considered seriously?

    15. The average American or European on welfare is better off.

    - Better off what? Better off dead?

    Reply



  5. Visit My Website

    August 14, 2008

    Permalink

    anonymous said:

    16. When did you last feel like invading a prison?

    - this one is good! Russians never called recent events an “invasion”. Truly Mr. Freud was right! You know the truth, you want to share it but you’re too afraid. Georgia is a PRISON. It can not be invaded, it can only be liberated!

    17. Your entire society is an evil house of cards

    - not an EVIL EMPIRE anymore? Just a house of cards? Such a pity! House of cards… Colossus on clay feet as Hitler said? Same rhetorics… Are you a Nazi? I didn’t believe when Russians wrote about Nazism being popular in some formerly poor European countries on OFFICIAL level…

    18. …run by a corrupt, kleptocratic, plutocracy

    - are any other governments really different? Russian one is definetely not the worst case!

    19. Your public attitudes to the west are very reminiscent of 1930s German attitudes to the outside world: resentful, blaming others, jealous and riddled with neurotic inferiority (and for no reason).

    - just compare Medvedef and Saakashvili! That’s obviously Medvedef that looks and acts like Hitler in the 1930′s!

    20. A closer inspection of your own country’s faults would be a better idea

    - there are hundreds of such inspectors coming to Russia every month. All work really hard. Tax-payers in US and EU pay for their expenses plus some extras for living in third rate hotels, eating junk food, breathing bad air etc.

    21. the lack of any political opposition internally

    - are they all already in Gulag?

    22. effective state control of the media

    - oh yes, US and EU media is remarkably independent!

    23. the lamentable state of the judiciary

    - that’s true. Punishment is very gentle. Criminals buy freedom just like in the USA. No death penalties. Hopefully Russia will work on it.

    24. I am no apologist for Americans

    - how can you be while living on welfare and being brain-washed?

    25. I regret the likely impact this Russian foolishness will have on the US election.

    - Clinton bombed Yugoslavia and supported Alban terrorists. Bush bombed Iraq and Afganistan and co-operates with both Kosovo/Alban mafia and Afgan drug-dealers to name but a few. Democrats are definetely better!

    24. Russia wins in the short term by imposing its will but in the long term you will lose

    - Well, time will tell

    25. Russia has made enemies out of Europeans.

    - No. I’m not an enemy of Russia. That’s US propaganda made Russians looking as the enemies in the eyes of some Europeans.

    26. For all its many faults America is not run by QUITE such an evil gang of crooks

    - America is run by NOT QUITE SUCH AN EVIL, but still gang of crooks, you want to say? Lesser of evils?

    27. None of us have any desire to live in your gulag or to be governed by the despots who run it.

    - It’s not my Gulag, but anyway… Ever read statistics regarding Americans emigrating to other countries? Too many real Americans choose other countries to reside. US population is compensated by immigration from formerly poor European countries and the rest of the world. Sh*t always attracts flies…

    28. Russia could very easily have assisted in organizing a plebiscite in the breakaway provinces and organized international monitors to ensure that the vote was free and fair.

    - Can you name at least one case of elections (plebiscite, vote etc.) that was accepted by the US/UN if the results were not as expected by the West?

    29. Russia’s claim to have responded to an attack is utterly bogus. The attack was provoked and was long prepared for.

    - Provoked? Long prepared for? So Saakashvili is Russian spy that pulled the trigger? Tell it to your children if you have any!

    29. My limited personal response … will be write to my member of parliament and request travel restrictions on Russians entering the EU

    - Good idea! Russian money will go to other countries then. Your parliament will hardly agree with you.

    30. and the expropriation of the assets of Russian oligarchs.

    - That’s what Russian people dream about! Start with Mr. Berezovsky, Khodorkovsky and Abramovich first. Russia doesn’t need them anymore.

    Reply



Leave a Comment

Here's your chance to speak.

  1. Name

    Mail

    Website

    Message