Posted on March 29, 2008 - by Venik

Russia and the US heading toward a confrontation

It seems that Russia and the US are moving toward some major headbutting in April.

First, there’s the issue of Kosovo and the announcement by the US that it intends to provide weapons to the breakaway province. Russia opposes the move, saying that this would be a violation of the UN SC Resolution 1244 (which it clearly is).

Second, McCain’s stupid remarks earlier this week about Russia and what he thinks Washington’s foreign policy should be toward Russia. Not to insult an old sick man, but if your intention is to replace the Dumb with the Dumber in the Office this fall, by all means give him your vote.

Then there is, perhaps, the prickliest issue of NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. There is no doubt that the moment Georgia received the NATO “action plan”, it will lose a considerable portion of its territory in the form of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia will also find itself cut off once again from Russian trade and travel.

Ukraine’s NATO invitation will surely lead to more problems with Gazprom and further attempts by Russia to destabilize Yushchenko’s shaky presidency. Majority of Ukraine’s trade is tied to the Russian market and consequences of an economic confrontation with Moscow cannot be offset by any handouts from the West. Not to mention that NATO membership is an extremely unpopular idea with the majority of Ukrainians and this whole drive toward NATO can evaporate overnight after Yushchenko leaves office.

Apparently Kremlin is entertaining a possibility of allowing Afghanistan-bound NATO troops and supplies to transit across Russia’s territory.  This should drastically reduce NATO’s expenses in Afghanistan and would be a rather friendly gesture from Russia. Whether or not Russia should be giving NATO lollypops for not expanding toward its borders is another question. Some in Russia are of an opinion that good kick in the butt would be more effective.

And finally there this ballistic missile shield thing in Poland and the Czech Republic that Russia is not too hot about. With all these NATO-related news coming together like this, Kremlin should have no problem justifying to the Russian people a need for a major confrontation with the Alliance. Hopefully they understand this in the Brussels.

Bush announced his unexpected visit to Moscow, surprising even some of his foreign policy advisers. Can’t imagine what he hopes to accomplish there. Usually, high-level meetings like this are not announced unless there is at least some face-saving agreement on some minor policy issue. There are only two ways the US can get Russia to drop its resistance to the ABM shield: a) by dropping the whole idea of the shield; b) by offering Russia full participation in the project on equal terms. Both options seem unlikely at this time to say the least.

On the other hand, in view of McCain’s Cold War flashbacks, time for Washington and Moscow to strike a deal and to avoid a full-blown arms race may be running out. An arms race is something both countries can ill afford at this time. Russia’s economic recovery may be rapid and impressive, but its still has a way to go. And the strongest economic recession in the US in the past sixty-some years make its economy particularly vulnerable. Perhaps Bush’s visit is little more than a last ditch attempt to avert a showdown.

So, gentlemen, hold on to your hats and to your wallets.

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