Posted on February 15, 2008 - by Venik
Russia’s Kosovo Options
An interesting opinion about Russia’s options regarding the Kosovo situation was published by Reuters in their “Russia’s options limited for Kosovo retaliation” (Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:34am EST). Fyodr Lukyanov, editor of the respected journal Russia in Global Affairs, believe that Russia’s immediate response to the expected proclamation of independence by Kosovo will be limited to more political rhetoric in the UN:
“Putin and everyone else will say this is a monstrous mistake, a flagrant violation of international law. But at the same time I think apart from these sound effects the package of measures today is limited.“
Mr. Lukyanov believes that Russia’s biggest ace – ability to recognize independence of the two breakaway provinces of the Republic of Georgia – will be saved for later use as leverage against Georgia, which wants to join NATO. This analyst’s opinion is that Russia will expand its cooperation with the two breakaway provinces, but it will stop short of recognizing their independence.
This seems like a reasonable assumption on the surface. However, many Russian foreign policy experts retained the old Soviet-era tendency to analyze international relations strictly in terms of political and military options. They frequently overlook the economic angle. Today Russia is in a far better shape than in was in 1999, when its assistance to Serbia was limited to political support.
It seems to me that even in Russia many analysts underestimate the extent to which the current Kremlin administration wants to reassert Russia on the international political arena. In the past few years Russia has been eager to use its rediscovered economic might to advance its political interests. I think Russia’s response to Kosovo’s independence will be far more forceful than expected. This response will not be immediate, but it will be substantial and it will go well beyond the usual political posturing.
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