Posted on February 15, 2008 - by Venik

Kosovo Quagmire, Round Two

Western media is in a rush to point out that Russia’s support of Serbia on the issue of Kosovo is a result of cultural ties between the two countries, as well as Russia’s desire to regain its influence in international politics. Russia’s failure to protect Serbia from aggression by NATO in 1999 was a humiliating blow to Moscow’s international image. Today Russia once again finds itself unable to defend Serbia’s interests.

Perhaps instead of concentrate on Russia’s desire to rebuild its image, we should pay more attention to what is actually going on around Kosovo. The 1999 UN Security Council Resolution 1244 guarantees sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia. By recognizing Kosovo’s independence, the US and the EU are undermining the authority of the UN and nullifying the Rambouillet peace accord between Serbia and NATO.

Russia warns that Western recognition of Kosovo’s independence will open the Pandora’s Box of separatist movements around the world. Dozens of countries around the world will feel the results. Serbs will never accept the loss of Kosovo. This issue is hundreds of years older than the EU, UN, and the US and it will outlive all three. Kosovo’s future will be anything but peaceful and prosperous.

While Russia may not be able to prevent Kosovo’s declaration of independence, the effects of Russia’s opposition will accumulate over time. Kosovo has no industry, no economy to speak of; it has no healthcare or education; its infrastructure has been bombed into oblivion by NATO almost ten years ago. Vast majority of Kosovo’s “ethnic Albanian” population (mostly illegal immigrants from the neighboring Albania) are uneducated and unskilled. Kosovo will be a welfare state and the West will be picking up the tab.

This actually would be the best-case scenario. The worst-case scenario would be another war. Only this time, instead of bombing Serbian civilians from far away, NATO will be dragged into a close-and-personal guerilla war with no UN mandate. Americans and Europeans will end up bankrolling both the war and the peace in Kosovo – both at the same time. And all Western press can write about today are Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. How childish.

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